A Simulation of the Spatial Expansion Process of Shrinking Cities Based on the Concept of Smart Shrinkage: A Case Study of the City of Baishan

The coexistence of urban expansion and shrinkage in China has become increasingly apparent; therefore, the current strategic model of growth-oriented urban planning as the top-level design needs to be adjusted. This paper focuses on the city of Baishan, which is a typical shrinking city in China, and explores the feasibility of implementing the concept of smart shrinkage planning in shrinking cities in China by constructing a coupled PLUS-SD model. The results demonstrate the following conclusions: (1) The overall simulation of the coupled PLUS-SD model is superior to that of the PLUS model. In Baishan, the areas with the most changes in construction land will be located at the edges of the landforms by 2030. (2) Using the traditional planning scenario would only exacerbate the rate of construction land expansion in Baishan, deepening the incongruity between the city’s population and construction land. (3) The smart shrinkage scenario will require strict control of the scale of construction land and optimization of the structure of the urban construction land, which would push the city in the direction of healthy and sustainable development. (4) The concept of smart shrinkage planning is a scientific and feasible plan for realizing the efficient and sustainable use of construction land in shrinking cities.