Arima Model to Predict the Prevalence of Diabetes Type 1 and Type 2 Patients: A Case Study of Jos University Teaching Hospital

Yunana, Termen Nanfwang and Lasisi, K. E. and Kwami, A. M. and Pam, Douglas Jah and Mafolasire, Sheyi and Echebiri, Chibuike John and Danung, Friday Ezekiel and Gambo, Salihu (2024) Arima Model to Predict the Prevalence of Diabetes Type 1 and Type 2 Patients: A Case Study of Jos University Teaching Hospital. Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 26 (4). pp. 80-103. ISSN 2582-0230

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Abstract

Diabetes Mellitus is a huge burden for human health, increasing number of patient is likely to result in rising demand for the medical emergencies. Due to limited number of hospitals with standard laboratory test kits to differentiate between type 1 and type 2 diabetes it is important to forecast the future incidences and prepare with proper resource planning. The monthly number of Diabetes patients obtained from Jos University Teaching Hospital is fitted by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Dataset starting from January, 2010 to December,2020. Using ARIMA, several models were evaluated based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Ljung-Box Q statistics. ARIMA(3, 1, 1) is found to be better and used to describe and predict the future trends of Diabetes type 1 and ARIMA(1,1,1) is a better model to predict the future prevalence of diabetes type 2. Therefore, the proposed model will help in the appropriate planning and allocation of resources for emergencies.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Science Global Plos > Mathematical Science
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email support@science.globalplos.com
Date Deposited: 03 May 2024 07:04
Last Modified: 03 May 2024 07:04
URI: http://ebooks.manu2sent.com/id/eprint/2638

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