The Tourist and Recreational Potential of Cross-Border Regions of Russia and Kazakhstan during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Estimation of the Current State and Possible Risks

The development of tourism is associated with numerous risks that have a direct and indirect impact on the realization of tourist and recreational potential. In recent years, in addition to internal risks, the importance of external environmental risks (geopolitical and epidemiological) has increased. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the foremost of these risks, and its effects on the development of regional tourism demands attention. The purpose of the study is to estimate the level of tourist and recreational potential of cross-border regions of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, and the possible risks during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the breakup of the USSR, one of the longest land borders in the world was established between Russia and Kazakhstan. The geographical scope of the study includes 12 constituent entities of the Russian Federation and 7 regions of Kazakhstan. Information posted on statistical portals, data from geographical atlases, and specialized websites of the executive authorities were used as the materials for the study. The tourist and recreational potential of the regions of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan was estimated by the scorecard method, with the assignment of weight coefficients to indicators included in four main clusters: Natural Factors, Cultural and Historical Factors, Social and Economic Factors, and Infrastructure Support of Tourism. Additionally, the experience of studying risks associated with tourism development during the pandemic was summarized. The conclusions reached are indicative of different levels of tourism and recreational potential in cross-border regions of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, and the inconsistency of the industry’s structure. It was found that the COVID-19 pandemic had increased the number of risks for the realization of tourism and recreational potential, which must be taken into account when making management decisions. The authorities of cross-border regions can use the results of the research to adjust tourism policy under the current restrictions and increased global risks. The application of mechanisms and methods of territorial planning and management will depend on the level of tourism and recreational potential. For regions with high and above-average potential, the emphasis should be on participation in federal projects, the development of cluster initiatives, and the application of a diversification strategy. Regions with medium and low potential should focus on the domestic tourist flow, develop inter-regional cooperation, and focus on the strategy of gaining a competitive advantage.